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CS2 Trade-Up Calculator

Input items

0 / 10

Analysis summary

Input cost
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Expected value
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Est. P/L
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ROI
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Win chance
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Avg float
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About the CS2 Trade-Up Calculator

Guide

How CS2 Trade-Ups Work

A CS2 trade-up contract takes 10 skins of the same rarity and converts them into a single skin from the next-higher rarity tier. The contract uses a deterministic formula for the output float and a probability split based on which collections your inputs come from. This calculator runs the same math the game uses, so you can simulate any contract before you spend a single cent.

The float averaging formula

CS2 normalizes each input's float to a 0–1 value relative to that skin's own min/max range, then averages all 10 normalized values, then maps the result onto the target skin's float range:

normalizedi = (floati − minFloati) / (maxFloati − minFloati)
avgNormalized = Σ normalizedi / 10
outputFloat   = targetMin + avgNormalized × (targetMax − targetMin)

Because each input is normalized against its own range, two skins with identical raw floats can contribute different amounts to the average. This is why low-float "filler" skins from forgiving ranges are worth more than they look.

Output rarity progression

Trade-ups walk one rarity at a time: Consumer → Industrial → Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert. The probability of getting any specific output skin equals the share of inputs from that collection divided by the number of eligible target skins in it. Six Snakebite inputs with three Snakebite Restricted targets gives each target a 6/10 ÷ 3 = 20% chance.

StatTrak and Souvenir rules

All 10 inputs in a StatTrak trade-up must be StatTrak; mixing StatTrak and normal skins is not allowed. Souvenir skins, on the other hand, became valid inputs in the IEM Cologne 2026 patch (May 2026) and can be mixed freely with normal skins — the gold stickers, autographs, map tag and Souvenir attribute are stripped on craft, so the output is always a normal skin. Knife and glove drops are only produced by Covert-rarity contracts from supported crates, never from collection-only Coverts.

What this calculator does

Drop 10 skins into the slots above and the calculator runs the official CS2 formula in real time. It outputs the per-target probability, the exact output float, the projected exterior, the expected value (EV) using your chosen marketplace, and the win probability — defined as the chance the output sells for more than your input cost after fees.

Why It Helps

Why Use a CS2 Trade-Up Calculator?

Trade-up math is unforgiving: a single mistyped float, an overlooked collection split or a stale marketplace price can flip a contract from profitable to losing. Doing the normalization-average-remap math by hand for 10 inputs takes minutes, and the result is still only as good as the prices you remember. This calculator removes both problems — every change to inputs, floats, StatTrak status or marketplace recomputes the entire outcome distribution in a single render.

  • No spreadsheet required. Per-collection probability, per-target probability and the float-to-exterior mapping are calculated for you, including for mixed-collection contracts that are tedious to split manually.
  • Real prices, not guesses. EV, ROI and win probability use live medians across Steam, Buff163, CSFloat, Skinport and DMarket so the profitability number reflects what the contract is actually worth today.
  • Catches eligibility traps. Collection-only Coverts and StatTrak/normal mismatches are blocked at input time so you never waste time configuring a contract the game would refuse. Souvenir inputs are accepted — the output is normalised to a non-Souvenir skin automatically.
  • Iterates as fast as you think. Swap one filler, change a float by 0.01, flip the marketplace — every change reprices the entire contract instantly so you can converge on the optimum without losing your place.

Walkthrough

How to Use the Trade-Up Calculator

  1. 01

    Pick a rarity and StatTrak mode

    Open the rarity selector and choose the input tier you want to trade up from (Consumer through Classified). Toggle StatTrak on if every input will be StatTrak — the contract requires all 10 inputs to share the same StatTrak status.

  2. 02

    Add 10 input skins to the slots

    Browse the catalog or your virtual inventory and drop skins into the 10 input slots. Mix collections freely — each new collection adds its own probability share to the outcomes panel on the right.

  3. 03

    Set float values for each input

    Either keep the default minimum float for each skin or type the exact float you plan to use. The calculator normalizes each value against that skin's float range as you type, so the predicted output float updates instantly.

  4. 04

    Choose the marketplace to price the contract

    Switch the market selector between Steam, Buff163, CSFloat, Skinport or DMarket. Input cost, expected value and ROI all reprice against the marketplace you pick, so you can compare profitability across venues.

  5. 05

    Read the outcomes, EV and win probability

    Review the outcomes table for the per-target probability, output float, projected exterior and sale price. The summary shows expected value, profit/loss, ROI and the win probability — the chance the trade-up sells for more than your input cost after fees.

  6. 06

    Save, share or download the trade-up

    Use the share button to copy a self-contained URL that restores the same calculator state on any device, save the contract to your library when signed in, or export a downloadable image summary to share off-platform.

Reference

Trade-Up Glossary

Expected Value (EV)
The probability-weighted average sale price of every possible outcome. EV = Σ (probability × price). If EV exceeds your input cost (plus fees), the contract is profitable on average.
ROI / Profitability
Return on investment, expressed as a percentage: ROI = (EV − inputCost) / inputCost × 100. A 25% ROI means the trade-up returns $1.25 for every $1.00 spent on average over many runs.
Win Probability
The chance the contract produces an output worth more than your inputs after fees. A contract can have positive EV but a low win probability (rare big payoffs) or negative EV with a high win probability (consistent small losses).
Output Float
The float value of the resulting skin, computed from the normalized average of your inputs and the target skin's float range. Determines the output's exterior (Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, Battle-Scarred).
Float Range / Cap
Each skin has its own min/max float range (the "cap"). The calculator normalizes inputs against these ranges, which is why two skins with the same raw float number can contribute different amounts to the average.
Filler Skin
A cheap input used to fill slots without changing the contract's collection distribution. Low-float fillers from skins with wide float ranges pull the normalized average down efficiently.
Input Cost
The total amount paid for the 10 input skins, valued at the marketplace selected in the calculator settings. Marketplace fees are accounted for separately when computing profit.
StatTrak Trade-Up
A contract where all 10 inputs are StatTrak. The output is also StatTrak, which usually commands a meaningful price premium — but StatTrak inputs are themselves more expensive, so the math has to clear the higher floor.

Strategy

Pro Tips for Profitable Trade-Ups

  • 01
    Hunt low-float fillers from wide ranges. An input with float 0.05 and range [0.00, 1.00] normalizes to 0.05; the same float in a [0.06, 0.80] range normalizes to ~0. Skins with wide float caps pull your average down harder for the same money.
  • 02
    Concentrate on one collection when targets are good. Mixing collections splits your probability mass. If a single collection has a clearly profitable target, all 10 inputs from that collection give it the highest possible probability share.
  • 03
    Mix collections when no single target is dominant. When the best targets are spread across collections, mixing inputs lets you take a proportional shot at each. The calculator computes the exact split for any combination.
  • 04
    Pick the marketplace where you actually buy and sell. Steam Market, Buff163, CSFloat and Skinport often disagree by 10–30% on the same skin. EV and ROI depend on which prices you trust — switch the market selector to match your real workflow.
  • 05
    Watch win probability, not just EV. A trade-up with +20% EV but 8% win probability is a long-tail bet you'll lose 92% of the time. Both numbers matter: EV tells you the long-run average, win probability tells you how often you'll see it.

FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the output float calculated in a CS2 trade-up?
CS2 normalizes each input's float to a 0–1 value relative to that skin's own float range, averages the 10 normalized values, then maps the result onto the target skin's float range. The formula is: outputFloat = targetMin + avgNormalized × (targetMax − targetMin). Lower-float inputs in the same range produce a lower output float.
What are the odds of getting a specific skin from a trade-up?
Each collection's probability equals its share of the 10 inputs (e.g., 6 inputs from one collection = 60%). That probability is then split evenly across the eligible target skins in that collection at the next rarity. With 6 Snakebite inputs and 3 Snakebite Restricted targets, each target lands at 6/10 ÷ 3 = 20%.
Does the order of skins in a trade-up contract matter?
No. The trade-up contract only looks at the set of 10 inputs, their floats, and their collections — never the order. You can place items in any slot.
Can I trade up StatTrak skins with normal skins?
No. All 10 inputs in a StatTrak trade-up must be StatTrak, and all inputs in a normal trade-up must be non-StatTrak. Mixing the two is not allowed by the contract.
Can you trade up Souvenir skins?
Yes. Since the IEM Cologne 2026 patch (May 2026), Souvenir weapon skins are eligible as trade-up inputs and can be mixed with normal skins in the same contract. The gold stickers, autographs, map tag and Souvenir attribute are removed on craft, so the output is always a normal skin one rarity tier higher. You still cannot mix StatTrak with non-StatTrak inputs, and the output can never be a Souvenir.
How many skins do I need for a trade-up contract?
Exactly 10 skins, all of the same rarity, all StatTrak or all non-StatTrak. They can come from one or many collections — the more concentrated your inputs, the more predictable your outcome odds.
Which rarity tiers can I trade up in CS2?
You can trade up Consumer → Industrial → Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert. Knives and gloves are not produced by trade-ups, but Covert-tier skins from supported crates can trade up to a knife/glove drop where eligible.
Can a trade-up produce a Factory New skin if my inputs are not Factory New?
Yes. The output float is determined by the normalized average of the inputs, not by their wear category. Low-float Minimal Wear or Field-Tested inputs can absolutely produce a Factory New output if the target skin allows it.
Do I need to pay or sign in to use the CSSkinLab trade-up calculator?
No. The calculator is free and runs without an account. Signing in unlocks extras like saving contracts, syncing a virtual inventory, and tracking completion history, but every calculation, float lookup and EV result is available to anonymous visitors.
How accurate are the odds, output float and profit numbers shown here?
The probability split and float math match the contract logic CS2 uses in-game — same normalization, same per-collection share. Profit and EV numbers are only as accurate as the marketplace prices behind them, which we refresh continuously across Steam, Buff163, CSFloat, Skinport and DMarket. Results refresh whenever you change inputs, floats or the selected marketplace.
Why do trade-up prices vary so much between Steam, Buff163 and CSFloat?
Each marketplace has its own buyer pool, fee structure and listing latency, so the same skin frequently lists 10–30% apart across them. Steam Market includes a 15% Valve fee on each side; Buff163 trends cheaper for popular skins but pays out in CNY; CSFloat and Skinport sit in between. The market selector lets you price the contract using the venue you actually trade on.
What makes a good filler skin for a trade-up contract?
A filler is cheap, has a wide float range so a low raw float normalizes near zero, and belongs to whichever collection you want to dilute or boost. The best fillers combine a sub-$0.10 price with a [0.00, 1.00]-style range — they pull the output float down hard without changing the contract's collection mix in expensive ways.
Can I save a trade-up contract and reload it later?
Yes. Signed-in users can save any configured contract — inputs, floats, marketplace, StatTrak flag — and reopen it from the saved trade-ups page. Anonymous users can use the share button to copy a self-contained URL that restores the exact same calculator state on any device.
Why does the output float here look slightly different from the one CS2's preview shows?
In-game the contract preview rounds floats and may apply a small display tolerance. The calculator runs the raw IEEE-754 math against the canonical float ranges, so differences in the 4th or 5th decimal are normal. Differences larger than that usually mean the input float caps used in-game have been updated — let us know and we will reconcile.

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