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CS2 case odds & expected value
Every weapon case ranked by what one opening returns on average at today's market prices. Expected value weighs each possible drop by its real odds, wear distribution and StatTrak chance, then compares it with the case price plus a key.
44 cases 44 priced Prices computed 4h ago
In short
The best-value CS2 case right now is the Chroma 2 Case: one opening costs $5.95 with a key and returns 82.9% of that on average, ahead of Chroma 3 Case (82.1%) and Chroma Case (81.2%).
None of the 44 priced cases returns more than it costs on average; the median case gives back 49.6% per opening.
- Best return
- 82.9%
- Chroma 2 Case
- Median return
- 49.6%
- Per opening, across all cases
- Worst return
- 5.3%
- The case that loses the most
- Cases above 100%
- 0
- Opening is a loss on average
Drop odds per opening
- Mil-Spec Grade
- 79.92%
- Restricted
- 15.98%
- Classified
- 3.20%
- Covert
- 0.64%
- Rare special (knife / gloves)
- 0.26%
StatTrak™ chance on any drop: 10%
Wear odds
- Factory New
- 3%
- Minimal Wear
- 24%
- Field-Tested
- 33%
- Well-Worn
- 24%
- Battle-Scarred
- 16%
Rolled the way CS2 does it, scaled into each skin's float range: a 0.00–0.08 skin is almost always Factory New, and a skin that starts at 0.18 never is.
How to read this
- Cost to open = case price (cross-market median) + one key.
- Expected value = every drop × its odds × its current price, wear- and StatTrak-weighted.
- Return = expected value ÷ cost. Below 100% means the average opening loses money. Every case does.
- Knife share = how much of the expected value sits in the rare pool. High share = a lottery ticket, low share = steadier drops.
Opening cases is gambling. Nothing here predicts a single outcome. If you want a specific skin, buying it is cheaper than unboxing it.
All cases ranked by expected return
| # | Case | Case price | Cost to open | Expected value | Return | After 5% fee | After Steam fees | Avg result | Knife share | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $3.46 | $5.95 | $4.93 | 82.9% | 78.8% | 72.1% | −$1.01 | 61% | 100% | |
| 2 | $3.11 | $5.60 | $4.60 | 82.1% | 78.2% | 71.6% | −$0.99 | 65% | 100% | |
| 3 | $4.06 | $6.55 | $5.32 | 81.2% | 77.3% | 70.8% | −$1.22 | 56% | 100% | |
| 4 | $3.15 | $5.64 | $4.24 | 75.2% | 71.6% | 65.6% | −$1.39 | 57% | 100% | |
| 5 | $2.65 | $5.14 | $3.86 | 75.1% | 71.4% | 65.4% | −$1.27 | 63% | 100% | |
| 6 | $2.66 | $5.15 | $3.83 | 74.4% | 70.9% | 65.0% | −$1.31 | 54% | 100% | |
| 7 | $0.98 | $3.47 | $2.51 | 72.3% | 68.6% | 63.1% | −$0.95 | 50% | 100% | |
| 8 | $2.64 | $5.13 | $3.69 | 71.9% | 68.4% | 62.8% | −$1.43 | 56% | 100% | |
| 9 | $10.35 | $12.84 | $8.70 | 67.8% | 64.4% | 59.0% | −$4.13 | 9% | 100% | |
| 10 | $0.94 | $3.43 | $2.28 | 66.5% | 63.3% | 58.0% | −$1.14 | 55% | 100% | |
| 11 | $12.17 | $14.66 | $9.17 | 62.6% | 59.5% | 54.5% | −$5.48 | 8% | 100% | |
| 12 | $9.08 | $11.57 | $6.88 | 59.5% | 56.6% | 51.9% | −$4.68 | 31% | 100% | |
| 13 | $4.12 | $6.61 | $3.89 | 58.9% | 56.0% | 51.3% | −$2.71 | 20% | 100% | |
| 14 | $0.85 | $3.34 | $1.94 | 58.1% | 55.4% | 50.6% | −$1.39 | 62% | 100% | |
| 15 | $6.22 | $8.71 | $4.91 | 56.4% | 53.6% | 49.1% | −$3.79 | 24% | 100% | |
| 16 | $24.84 | $27.33 | $15.34 | 56.1% | 53.3% | 48.8% | −$11.98 | 14% | 100% | |
| 17 | $2.48 | $4.97 | $2.77 | 55.7% | 53.1% | 48.7% | −$2.19 | 11% | 100% | |
| 18 | $0.54 | $3.03 | $1.64 | 54.1% | 51.5% | 47.2% | −$1.38 | 60% | 100% | |
| 19 | $18.72 | $21.21 | $11.24 | 53.0% | 50.4% | 46.1% | −$9.96 | 7% | 100% | |
| 20 | $10.39 | $12.88 | $6.54 | 50.8% | 48.2% | 44.2% | −$6.33 | 12% | 100% | |
| 21 | $1.32 | $3.81 | $1.93 | 50.7% | 48.0% | 44.1% | −$1.87 | 23% | 100% | |
| 22 | $6.65 | $9.14 | $4.53 | 49.6% | 47.2% | 43.2% | −$4.60 | 6% | 100% | |
| 23 | $3.04 | $5.53 | $2.73 | 49.4% | 47.0% | 43.2% | −$2.79 | 28% | 100% | |
| 24 | $1.49 | $3.98 | $1.96 | 49.2% | 47.0% | 43.2% | −$2.01 | 9% | 100% | |
| 25 | $5.03 | $7.52 | $3.67 | 48.8% | 46.4% | 42.6% | −$3.84 | 9% | 100% | |
| 26 | $3.59 | $6.08 | $2.95 | 48.5% | 46.1% | 42.3% | −$3.12 | 10% | 100% | |
| 27 | $2.45 | $4.94 | $2.37 | 48.0% | 45.7% | 41.9% | −$2.56 | 32% | 100% | |
| 28 | $1.35 | $3.84 | $1.83 | 47.7% | 45.3% | 41.9% | −$2.00 | 15% | 100% | |
| 29 | $6.87 | $9.36 | $4.35 | 46.5% | 44.2% | 40.5% | −$5.00 | 44% | 100% | |
| 30 | $8.79 | $11.28 | $5.16 | 45.7% | 43.5% | 39.9% | −$6.11 | 15% | 100% | |
| 31 | $0.27 | $2.76 | $1.21 | 43.8% | 41.7% | 38.4% | −$1.54 | 27% | 100% | |
| 32 | $0.54 | $3.03 | $1.32 | 43.6% | 41.6% | 38.3% | −$1.70 | 13% | 100% | |
| 33 | $0.90 | $3.39 | $1.40 | 41.3% | 39.5% | 36.3% | −$1.98 | 31% | 100% | |
| 34 | $0.72 | $3.21 | $1.30 | 40.5% | 38.6% | 35.8% | −$1.90 | 22% | 100% | |
| 35 | $0.18 | $2.67 | $0.91 | 34.1% | 32.6% | 29.6% | −$1.75 | 36% | 100% | |
| 36 | $0.39 | $2.88 | $0.92 | 31.9% | 30.6% | 28.1% | −$1.95 | 32% | 100% | |
| 37 | $99.19 | $101.68 | $31.54 | 31.0% | 29.5% | 27.0% | −$70.13 | 2% | 100% | |
| 38 | $0.15 | $2.64 | $0.80 | 30.3% | 28.8% | 26.1% | −$1.83 | 36% | 100% | |
| 39 | $0.33 | $2.82 | $0.84 | 29.8% | 28.7% | 25.9% | −$1.97 | 36% | 100% | |
| 40 | $53.37 | $55.86 | $15.83 | 28.3% | 26.9% | 24.7% | −$40.02 | 5% | 100% | |
| 41 | $41.49 | $43.98 | $12.44 | 28.3% | 26.9% | 24.6% | −$31.53 | 6% | 100% | |
| 42 | $0.10 | $2.59 | $0.72 | 27.8% | 26.6% | 24.3% | −$1.86 | 24% | 100% | |
| 43 | $1.61 | $1.61 | $0.37 | 23.0% | 21.7% | 19.9% | −$1.23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | $1.71 | $1.71 | $0.09 | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | −$1.61 | 0% | 100% |
Prices are cross-market medians in USD converted to your currency; keys are counted at Valve's $2.49. Coverage under 80% means some drops had no live price and count as zero, so that case's real value is a little higher than shown. "After fees" values every drop at what you would receive selling it: a 5% third-party market fee, or Steam's 5% + 10% fees with a 1¢ minimum each. Recomputed every day.
Frequently asked questions
Which CS2 case has the best expected value right now?
The best-value CS2 case right now is the Chroma 2 Case: one opening costs $5.95 with a key and returns 82.9% of that on average, ahead of Chroma 3 Case (82.1%) and Chroma Case (81.2%). None of the 44 priced cases returns more than it costs on average; the median case gives back 49.6% per opening. Expected value weighs every possible drop by its real odds, wear and StatTrak chance at live market prices.
What are the real CS2 case opening odds?
Every weapon case uses the same rarity table published by Valve: roughly 79.92% Mil-Spec (blue), 15.98% Restricted (purple), 3.20% Classified (pink), 0.64% Covert (red) and 0.26% for the rare special pool (knives or gloves). Inside a tier every skin is equally likely, so a case with fewer red skins gives each red a higher chance.
Is opening CS2 cases worth it?
On average, no. Expected value counts every possible drop weighted by its odds and current market price. For every case in this table the expected value is below the cost of the case plus a key, so the average opening loses money. Buying the skin you want on the market is cheaper than trying to unbox it.
How is expected value calculated?
For each skin in the case we take the current cross-market median price of every wear, weight it by the wear drop distribution adjusted to that skin’s float range, add the StatTrak chance, and multiply by the skin’s drop probability. Summing every outcome gives the expected value of one opening. It is recomputed daily from live prices.
What does "expected return" mean?
Expected return is the expected value divided by the total cost to open (case price plus a key). 60% means you get back, on average, 60 cents of item value per dollar spent. Nothing on this page reaches 100%.
How much does a CS2 case key cost?
Keys are sold only by Valve for $2.49 (regional pricing varies) and cannot be traded or sold on the Steam Market since 2019. The cost-to-open column includes one key at that price.
What are the wear (float) odds when opening a case?
The float of an unboxed skin follows a fixed distribution across all cases: about 3% Factory New, 24% Minimal Wear, 33% Field-Tested, 24% Well-Worn and 16% Battle-Scarred, scaled into the skin’s own float range the way the game rolls it. A skin with a narrow float range is almost always Factory New, and a skin whose range starts above 0.15 can never be.
What is the StatTrak chance in a case?
Every drop from a weapon case has a 10% chance of being the StatTrak version, independently of rarity. StatTrak variants usually sell for more, which is already included in the expected value.
Why does price coverage matter?
Coverage is the share of possible drops that had a live market price when the numbers were computed. Unpriced outcomes count as zero, so a case with low coverage has an understated expected value. Treat anything under 80% coverage as a rough estimate.
Which case has the best return?
The table is sorted by expected return, so the top row is the case that loses the least per opening right now. It changes as knife, glove and skin prices move, and discontinued cases with rising case prices tend to slide down the list.
Are these odds the same in every region?
Yes. Drop odds are global. What changes by region is the key price in your local currency and the marketplace prices used for expected value, which are shown here in your selected currency.