Tools
Riptide Surf Shop Sticker Collection opening simulator
Open as many cases, capsules or souvenir packages as you like with the real drop odds and live prices. See what you would spend, what you would most likely get, how often a batch comes out ahead, and one full simulated haul.
43 weapon cases165 souvenir packages13 music kit boxes4 pins capsules7 patch packs3 graffiti boxes148 sticker capsules92 autograph capsules
Container
No live market price for this container. Enter what you pay for one.
How many to open
Value each drop at
Market price is the cross-market median. "After fees" is what a seller receives: a 5% third-party market fee, or Steam's 5% + 10% with a 1¢ minimum each.
- You spend
- $0.00
- 100 × $0.00
- You get back on average
- $224.46
- — of what you paid
- Average result
- +$224.46
- Over many batches this size
- Chance to come out ahead
- …
- Simulating… 0%
What 100 capsules most likely hold
- Exotic
- ~3.2 · 96.2% for ≥1
- Remarkable
- ~16 · >99.9% for ≥1
- High Grade
- ~81 · >99.9% for ≥1
| Drop | Odds per opening | Expected in 100 | At least one | Avg value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 0.269% | ~0.3 | 23.6% | $31.14 |
 | 0.269% | ~0.3 | 23.6% | $29.55 |
 | 0.269% | ~0.3 | 23.6% | $19.96 |
 | 0.269% | ~0.3 | 23.6% | $18.36 |
 | 0.269% | ~0.3 | 23.6% | $10.32 |
 | 0.269% | ~0.3 | 23.6% | $8.65 |
 | 0.269% | ~0.3 | 23.6% | $8.38 |
 | 0.269% | ~0.3 | 23.6% | $7.90 |
 | 0.269% | ~0.3 | 23.6% | $7.57 |
 | 0.269% | ~0.3 | 23.6% | $7.39 |
 | 0.269% | ~0.3 | 23.6% | $6.99 |
 | 0.269% | ~0.3 | 23.6% | $4.84 |
How it could go
Open them
One simulated run of 100 capsules, rolled with the same odds. Every run is different.
Odds are Valve's published drop rates per container type; inside a tier every item is equally likely. Wear follows the fixed float distribution scaled into each skin's range. Prices are cross-market medians in USD shown in your currency; keys are counted at Valve's $2.49 unless you change it. This is a statistical model: nothing is opened, bought or sold, and no single run is predictable. If you want a specific skin, buying it is cheaper than unboxing it.
Frequently asked questions
How does the CS2 case opening simulator work?
Pick any openable container — weapon case, sticker or autograph capsule, souvenir package, patch pack, music kit box, pins capsule or graffiti box — and how many you want to open. The simulator rolls every opening with the real drop odds (rarity tier, which item in the tier, wear from the skin’s float range, StatTrak chance) and values each drop at its current cross-market median price. You see what you spend, what you most likely get back, how the result varies and one full simulated haul.
Are the odds the same as in the game?
Yes. Weapon cases use Valve’s published odds: 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert and 0.26% for the rare special pool (knives and gloves), with a 10% StatTrak chance on any drop. Capsules, packages and boxes use their own tier tables. Inside a tier every item is equally likely.
How are wear and float simulated?
CS2 rolls a raw float from a fixed distribution (about 3% Factory New, 24% Minimal Wear, 33% Field-Tested, 24% Well-Worn, 16% Battle-Scarred) and scales it into the skin’s own float range. The simulator does the same, so a skin with a 0.00–0.08 range is almost always Factory New and a skin that starts at 0.18 can never be.
What does "chance to come out ahead" mean?
It is the share of simulated runs in which the drops were worth at least what you paid for the containers and keys. Thousands of runs of your batch are simulated to estimate it, together with the typical, worst-5% and best-5% results.
Why is the expected return below 100%?
Every container returns less than it costs on average once you include the key. Knives and gloves lift the average a little, but they are so rare that most batches finish far below cost. The distribution chart shows how often a run actually comes out ahead.
What do the "after fees" options change?
They value every drop at what you would receive selling it instead of its listed price: a 5% fee on a third-party market, or Steam’s 5% + 10% fees with a 1¢ minimum each. Cheap stickers lose most of their value to Steam fees, which is why capsules look better before fees than after.
Can I change the case or key price?
Yes. The container price defaults to the current cross-market median and the key to Valve’s $2.49, but both are editable, so you can model a cheaper case bought on a third-party market or a regional key price.
Does the simulator affect my real inventory?
No. Nothing is opened, bought or sold. It is a statistical model of what a batch of openings would most likely produce at today’s prices.